Table of Index
Executive Summary
In February 2025, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands surged to VND131,000 (US$5.1) per kilogram, reflecting a sharp VND2,000 increase in a single day—marking a historic high for the country’s coffee industry. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025).
Robusta prices on the London Exchange fluctuated between US$5,573–5,696 per tonne, while Arabica on the New York Exchange jumped US$540, reaching US$9,460 per tonne for March 2025 contracts—highlighting global pressures influencing Vietnam's coffee pricing. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025)
Volume Down, Value Up Despite soaring prices, Vietnam's coffee export volume fell 38.2% from October 2024 to January 2025. Yet, the export value rose by 8.8%, with 137,568 tonnes shipped in January alone, generating US$694.93 million in revenue. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025)
2024 marked a turning point for vietnam coffee production, as the country emerged as a global market leader with record-breaking prices. On February 11, 2025, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands soared to VND131,000 (US$5.1) per kilogram, marking a significant VND2,000 increase in a single day. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025)
This dramatic price movement reflects broader trends in the global coffee market. On the London Exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated between US$5,573 and US$5,696 per tonne (around VND140,000–144,000 per kg). Meanwhile, on the New York Exchange, Arabica surged by US$540, reaching US$9,460 per tonne for March 2025 contracts. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025)
Despite these price surges, Vietnam's coffee export volume declined sharply between October 2024 and January 2025. In January alone, the country exported 137,568 tonnes of coffee—representing a 38.2% drop in volume compared to the previous year. However, thanks to higher global prices, the value of exports increased by 8.8%, generating a total of US$694.93 million. (Vietnam News: 2025 & VCCI: 2025). This sharp divergence between price and volume is not incidental—it reflects deeper, structural pressures shaping the global coffee trade. A convergence of climate disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply chain constraints is now testing the resilience of producing countries like Vietnam.
Climate, Conflict, and Policy: The Triple Threat to Vietnam Coffee Production
Behind the dramatic price increases lies a perfect storm of structural stressors—climate volatility, global market uncertainty, and critical bottlenecks in trade and logistics.These forces are not only inflating prices but also threatening the long-term stability and equity of the global coffee supply chain.
Climate Change
2024 was officially the hottest year ever recorded, exacerbating drought conditions in key coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. These extreme weather patterns have disrupted harvests, reduced yields, and fueled volatility across the global food market—including coffee. As yields drop, prices naturally rise, particularly for quality varieties in short supply.
Policy & Market Uncertainty
Market players are also navigating an increasingly complex policy environment. The delayed implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)—intended to ensure that coffee and other imports are free from deforestation—has created uncertainty. On top of that, fears over potential U.S. tariffs are looming large. In response, many producers are holding back their stock, choosing to sell only what’s necessary to hedge against future price changes. This behavior restricts supply further and puts additional upward pressure on prices.
Shipping Disruptions
Meanwhile, ongoing conflict in the Red Sea has disrupted traditional global shipping routes. Vietnamese coffee exports to Europe now have to avoid the Red Sea and reroute around Africa, extending delivery times from 20 days to over a month. The result? Rising shipping costs, delays, and increased opportunities for price manipulation by logistics carriers—all of which contribute to the inflated cost of coffee on the market. (Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI): 2025 , The Guardian: 2025; Business Insider: 2024; Nongnghiep Vietnam: 2024)
Supply Sortage
Beyond climate pressures and global logistics disruptions, a tightening supply of Arabica coffee is creating a deep squeeze across the market. The world’s largest coffee producer—Brazil—has underperformed for the past four years, reducing its overall Arabica output. As a result, producers are now holding back their remaining stock, anticipating even higher prices in the near future.
This supply restraint has pushed up prices for Robusta coffee, too, widening the price gap between the two major varieties. As of early 2025, the gap has reached US$3,780 per tonne, one of the steepest in recent years.
A similar trend is unfolding in Vietnam. Despite the record-breaking prices, many Vietnamese coffee farmers remain hesitant to sell. One such case is Nguyễn Thị Chiến, a coffee grower in Kon Tum, who reported selling just one tonne of her coffee at VND115,000 per kg, while keeping the rest in storage—hoping prices might rise even further. (Cincodias: 2024) But this cautious optimism is not without risk. Market volatility is leaving producers unsure of the best time to sell, trapped between the fear of missing out and the anxiety of a sudden price drop.
The Impact of Rising Coffee Prices and What’s Next for Vietnam Coffee Production?
As coffee prices skyrocket, Vietnam is feeling the pressure from multiple angles—climate change, supply chain disruptions, and hesitant producers. But even as value increases, the future of Vietnam’s coffee industry depends on how the country responds to these mounting challenges.
Declining Production
One of the biggest threats lies in climate-related crop decline. Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns are increasingly affecting coffee yields. At the same time, many farmers are switching to more profitable crops like durian, particularly to meet China’s durian export regulations, which discourage intercropping. As a result, many coffee trees in intercropped farms are being cut down. According to the Vietnam Coffee Association (VICOFA), this trend has caused Vietnam’s coffee yield to drop by at least 10% during the 2023–2024 crop season.
Producer Hesitancy Continues
Despite record-high prices, many coffee farmers remain cautious about selling. One case is Le Van Nghia, a grower in Gia Lai Province, who has declined offers for his coffee—waiting instead for prices to reach VND120,000–VND130,000 per kg. If he sells at VND120,000 per kg, he could earn VND1.8 billion, with a 70% profit margin after deducting costs for labor, fertilizer, materials, and irrigation. But this kind of strategy also disrupts the supply chain: buyers, exporters, traders, and roasters are struggling to secure stock in a highly unpredictable market.
To stay competitive, Vietnam is now prioritizing long-term strategies aimed at ensuring the sustainability of its coffee sector.This includes Improving traceability and Complying with the EU’s deforestation regulations (EUDR).These actions are key to maintaining access to high-value markets and safeguarding Vietnam’s position as a global coffee leader.
Building Resilience: A Sustainable Future for Vietnam Coffee Production
As Vietnam’s coffee industry grapples with the pressures of climate change and market volatility, the path forward lies in resilience—both environmental and institutional. The sector can no longer rely solely on traditional practices. Instead, it needs to evolve with the changing climate and shifting global demands.
To combat extreme heat, unpredictable weather, and prolonged drought, Vietnamese coffee producers must be supported with the capacity to adopt sustainable farming practices. Techniques such as agroforestry and Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) are key to improving crop resilience, reducing vulnerability through crop diversification, enhancing water retention and soil health, ensuring a stable, long-term water supply. These methods not only help producers adapt to climate change but also pave the way for a more sustainable and secure coffee supply.
At Koltiva, this commitment to sustainability is brought to life through KoltiSkills, our on-the-ground extension service. By using a Boots-on-the-Ground approach, we empower producers through direct, hands-on training.
“One of our projects in Indonesia is helping producers implement soil and water conservation techniques like dead-end trenches on their plots. These methods allow them to retain water and nutrients, strengthen farm resilience against drought, and adopt sustainable practices,” said Andre Mawardhi, our Senior Manager for Agriculture and Environment.
This kind of localized, practical support is vital for ensuring that smallholder producers aren’t left behind—and that they become leaders in climate-smart agriculture.
Regulatory Readiness: Meeting Global Standards in Vietnam Coffee Production
As Vietnam strengthens its role in the global coffee trade, compliance with international regulations is no longer optional—it's essential. One of the most significant policy shifts on the horizon is the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to be fully implemented by the end of 2025. This regulation will require all coffee entering EU markets to be deforestation-free and fully traceable. The message is clear: if Vietnamese coffee wants to stay globally competitive, its supply chain must become more transparent and accountable.
But EUDR is only part of the picture. Some markets—including high-value ones—also demand compliance with sustainability standards like Rainforest Alliance certification, adding even more layers of complexity to an already demanding system.
“Beyond training and coaching, our KoltiSkills solutions equip producers with the expertise and support needed to navigate complex certification processes—from meeting stringent requirements to compiling relevant documentation,” said Andre.
To meet these evolving demands, Koltiva offers a modular digital approach that integrates:
KoltiTrace MIS for supply chain traceability
Land Use Tracker for deforestation mapping
KoltiSkills for data collection, surveys, and polygon mapping
With a dedicated APAC team based in Vietnam, Koltiva ensures producers are not left behind, helping them secure long-term market access while strengthening their commitment to sustainable practices.
“We provide dedicated support to Vietnamese coffee organizations to strengthen supply chain transparency, enhance sustainability practices, and secure long-term market access,” mentioned Lily Tran, Business Development Lead.
Through KoltiTrace, Land Use Tracker, and KoltiSkills, we equip coffee producers, cooperatives, and exporters with the tools and training needed to build transparent, traceable, and sustainable supply chains. Our integrated solutions help ensure compliance with global regulations like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) while improving data accuracy, production practices, and long-term competitiveness.
By fostering data-driven decision-making and supporting smallholders with hands-on coaching, Koltiva helps strengthen accountability across the coffee sector—ensuring that Vietnamese coffee not only leads the market in price, but also in principle.
Talk to our experts today to learn how our traceability solutions can support your journey toward regulatory compliance and a more sustainable coffee future.
Writer: Kumara Anggita, Content Writer
Editor: Bobby Hermawan, Head of Digital Marketing
About Writer:
Kumara Anggita, serving as Koltiva's dedicated Content Writer, brings a wealth of experience from her six-year tenure in journalism in the fields of humanities and lifestyle, as well as her role as a writer in the tech industry. Her deep-rooted passion for gender equality and sustainability spurred her to enhance her reporting and storytelling skills through the EmPower Media Bootcamp by UN Women. Now, Kumara utilizes her platform to advocate for sustainable practices and gender equality through her compelling writing.
Resources
